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Match-equity lookup
In match play the score changes everything. Match equity is your chance of winning the whole match from where you stand now, and it is what every cube and take decision really turns on. Enter how many points each player still needs and read the odds, straight from the published Woolsey–Heinrich table.
The full table
Row = your points to go, column = your opponent's. Each cell is your chance (%) of winning the match. Pre-Crawford.
| You \ Opp | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50 | 70 | 75 | 83 | 85 | 90 | 91 | 94 | 95 |
| 2 | 30 | 50 | 60 | 68 | 75 | 81 | 85 | 88 | 91 |
| 3 | 25 | 40 | 50 | 59 | 66 | 71 | 76 | 80 | 84 |
| 4 | 17 | 32 | 41 | 50 | 58 | 64 | 70 | 75 | 79 |
| 5 | 15 | 25 | 34 | 42 | 50 | 57 | 63 | 68 | 73 |
| 6 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 36 | 43 | 50 | 56 | 62 | 67 |
| 7 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 30 | 37 | 44 | 50 | 56 | 61 |
| 8 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 25 | 32 | 38 | 44 | 50 | 55 |
| 9 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 33 | 39 | 45 | 50 |
How to use it
Find your own row by how many points you still need, then read across to your opponent's column. The number is your match-winning chance; your opponent's is whatever is left to make 100. The player needing fewer points is the leader, and the gap in equity is what justifies a more aggressive or more cautious cube. The 1-away column is where the Crawford rule bites — once a player is one point from the match, the doubling cube is frozen for a single game.
Pair these figures with the doubling-cube trainer to turn a score into an actual take-or-pass decision, and read the doubling cube for the ideas behind them.
Source: Kit Woolsey, The Match Equity Table (data from Hal Heinrich's match database), published on Backgammon Galore. Figures are rounded as published.
Common questions
What is match equity?
Match equity is your chance of winning the whole match from a given score, before the next game is played. It matters because the value of a single point changes with the score — winning a point when you are far ahead is worth less than winning one when the match is close — and that shapes every doubling and take decision.
What is the Woolsey–Heinrich table?
It is the long-standing reference match equity table, compiled by Kit Woolsey using data from Hal Heinrich's match database. The figures are pre-Crawford and rounded to whole percentages. Modern engines use higher-precision tables such as Kazaross-XG2, but Woolsey–Heinrich remains the most widely cited published table.
Why is the table the same whichever player you look up?
Because it is anti-symmetric: your chance and your opponent's must add up to 100, and when both players need the same number of points the equity is exactly 50. So one lookup gives you both figures — your cell, and 100 minus it for your opponent.